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A high-level Kurdish delegation is visiting top US security officials in Washington this week.
While there has been Kurdish political representation in the US capital for decades, the Kurdistan Regional Government really only has foreign relations experience dealing with former President Barack Obama during his eight-year administration.
Pollack is a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He began his career as an Iran-Iraq military analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) where he was an employee from 1988 until 1995.
The Kurds proved their mettle in the battle against ISIS. And last year, they were able to use their successes as leverage when the Kurdistan Region was in the middle of three crises: the war with ISIS, the refugee influx, and a plunge in oil prices coupled with the Baghdad problem. Still, those were Kurdish problems framed within the context of defeating the shared common enemy of ISIS.
“So far, the President has not shown any interest in providing wider assistance to the KRG or Iraq aside from defeating Daesh,” Pollack said.
Defeating ISIS militarily in northern Iraq is seen as a matter of when, not if, by the international community. So beyond ISIS, Kurdish officials have announced plans to professionalize their armed forces with international support.
“Americans certainly welcome it, but we have heard it before. Several times,” Pollack said. “I think the new Administration will wait to see if it actually happens this time. If it does, then they will have to decide how to support it — which will be complicated given the fact that they are also trying to support Baghdad and the unity of Iraq.”
So what can Kurdish Security Chancellor Masrour Barzani and his accompanying delegation of presidential Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein and KRG Representative Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman leverage against the Americans?
“Here, I think Kak Masrour has some important cards to play because one thing that the Trump Administration very much wants to do is to push back on Iran and there are few people in the KRG who are as well positioned to explain to the U.S. how the KRG can help in pushing back on the Iranians than Masrour Barzani,” Pollack detailed.
Trump’s fiscal year 2017 budget included an increase in defense spending and cuts to the State Department.
“Over the next 12 months, I think that one of the biggest challenges for both is going to be convincing this president that it is worth him remaining invested — let along doing more — in this part of the world. If not, he will probably leave some troops in Iraq to avoid Barack Obama's mistake, but that may be it,” Pollack said, adding that the budget shift will probably not have an effect on US-Kurdistan Region defense, security and intelligence cooperation.
In dealing with Trump it could benefit Kurdish officials to demonstrate real, short-term successes.
“To get this president interested in Iraqi Kurdistan, I suspect that the KRG is going to have to convince the president that the KRG can stand on its own two feet and help the United States now — not in 5 or 10 years,” Pollack said.
While there has been Kurdish political representation in the US capital for decades, the Kurdistan Regional Government really only has foreign relations experience dealing with former President Barack Obama during his eight-year administration.
If Obama had a strategic long-term plan for the Kurdistan Region, his replacement Donald Trump’s remains tightly guarded or still being formulated.
“How much military assistance to the Kurds complicates the U.S. relationship with Baghdad — which is likely to be the priority of those of his advisors who actually care about the Middle East,” Kenneth Pollack told Rudaw English. “For them, Baghdad is the big prize and they don't want to "lose" it to the Iranians.”
Pollack is a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He began his career as an Iran-Iraq military analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) where he was an employee from 1988 until 1995.
The Kurds proved their mettle in the battle against ISIS. And last year, they were able to use their successes as leverage when the Kurdistan Region was in the middle of three crises: the war with ISIS, the refugee influx, and a plunge in oil prices coupled with the Baghdad problem. Still, those were Kurdish problems framed within the context of defeating the shared common enemy of ISIS.
“So far, the President has not shown any interest in providing wider assistance to the KRG or Iraq aside from defeating Daesh,” Pollack said.
Defeating ISIS militarily in northern Iraq is seen as a matter of when, not if, by the international community. So beyond ISIS, Kurdish officials have announced plans to professionalize their armed forces with international support.
“Americans certainly welcome it, but we have heard it before. Several times,” Pollack said. “I think the new Administration will wait to see if it actually happens this time. If it does, then they will have to decide how to support it — which will be complicated given the fact that they are also trying to support Baghdad and the unity of Iraq.”
So what can Kurdish Security Chancellor Masrour Barzani and his accompanying delegation of presidential Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein and KRG Representative Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman leverage against the Americans?
“Here, I think Kak Masrour has some important cards to play because one thing that the Trump Administration very much wants to do is to push back on Iran and there are few people in the KRG who are as well positioned to explain to the U.S. how the KRG can help in pushing back on the Iranians than Masrour Barzani,” Pollack detailed.
Trump’s fiscal year 2017 budget included an increase in defense spending and cuts to the State Department.
“Over the next 12 months, I think that one of the biggest challenges for both is going to be convincing this president that it is worth him remaining invested — let along doing more — in this part of the world. If not, he will probably leave some troops in Iraq to avoid Barack Obama's mistake, but that may be it,” Pollack said, adding that the budget shift will probably not have an effect on US-Kurdistan Region defense, security and intelligence cooperation.
In dealing with Trump it could benefit Kurdish officials to demonstrate real, short-term successes.
“To get this president interested in Iraqi Kurdistan, I suspect that the KRG is going to have to convince the president that the KRG can stand on its own two feet and help the United States now — not in 5 or 10 years,” Pollack said.
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