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Analysis
Michael Pregent, a US security analyst who is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., speaks to Rudaw on July 12, 2019. Photo: Rudaw video
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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gauging the US capital's perspective of developments affecting the Kurdistan Region and its neighbors, Hudson Institute senior fellow Michael Pregent offered insight on NATO-ally Turkey acquiring a Russian-made missile system, the possibility of the United States further utilizing the Kurdistan Region in lieu of Incirlik, and the growing influence of the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq.
"The last thing you want to do is integrate a Russian-based air defense system into a NATO network. It gives the Russians and the Chinese backdoors into NATO capabilities," Pregent said on Friday during Rudaw's 'The Washington Perspective.'
Turkey began receiving components for the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system on Friday. It is expected for Ankara to obtain the system in three phases. Photos showed military trucks, but no actual launchers or missiles in Turkey.
The S-400 was first developed in the 1990s, but is still considered one of the most advanced air defense systems available on global weapons market.
Pregent expressed that NATO air systems could now be vulnerable to an "offensive cyberattack."
The US reaction will be to halt the F-35 program for Turkey, Pregent reiterated. The United States ordered Turkish pilots who had begun training on the fifth-generation fighter jet made in the United States to stop in June.
"We'll also remind Turkey, 'You're a part of NATO," he predicted, claiming it does not bode well in Washington for Ankara to get grouped with Iran and North Korea which are sanctioned and breaching agreements.
The US Congress on Friday was considering supporting sanctions against Turkey, as well as the Pentagon re-evaluating its use of Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, where approximately 5,000 airmen are stationed on near the Mediterranean in southern Turkey.
Given political uncertainty in Iraq with successive governments, Pregent was asked about the Kurdistan Region's capital city being used more by the US military as tensions heat up with neighboring Iran.
"There is a really nice base that the US could use to do missions in the Middle East and be part of the counter-ISIS campaign — and that would be in Erbil. So that's one place we could use," explained Pregent.
He revealed there have been talks about "moving Incirlik [personnel and equipment] to Erbil to have leverage going back to Iran."
The federal government of Iraq has to sign off on foreign troop deployments in the Kurdistan Region, which Pregent bluntly acknowledged: "Baghdad is against it."
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has set July 31 as a deadline for all members of Iraq's Hashd al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), to formally join the Iraqi Army.
"There are Americans in D.C. who believe that Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani does not want the militias in the Iraqi Security Forces," Pregent said.
He went on to add: "He wants the militias in the Iraqi Security Forces because then they have access to US equipment, US training, US funds, and more importantly US intelligence to tip off what the Americans are doing in Iraq."
Pregent was asked about the implications of the ISF being increasingly Shiite-dominated in a country that is a powder keg for ethno-sectarian tensions among Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, and other components.
"It's not that it's the government ... It's the Shiite political parties," argued Pregent. "They want it to be something that protects the government from its own population. They are building a regime protection force."
He went on to opine that the Hashd al-Shaabi are building an Iraqi version of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC).
"All within the constructs of 'We're trying to [form] a national army...' " he added.
Michael Pregent is a senior fellow at the US-based Hudson institute think-tank and a Middle East analyst who specializes in security affairs.
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