Why it makes sense for Syrian regime to advance into Raqqa now
The Syrian military re-entered the country’s Raqqa province for the first time in almost two years on Saturday morning, aiming to recapture it from Islamic State (ISIS) militants.
Syrian soldiers and allied militias, supported by Russian airstrikes, are advancing toward the town of Tabqa, which is home to a former Syrian military airbase and dam.
This offensive began shortly after the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched their own offensive in northern Raqqa, and toward Manbij. Both groups aim to retake Tabqa, which is 40 kilometers upstream (westward) from the city of Raqqa – ISIS’s so-called de-facto capital and main Syrian stronghold.
For Damascus to undertake such an offensive against ISIS in Raqqa now makes sense because retaking Tabqa would reverse one of two humiliating military defeats Syria’s military suffered at the hands of ISIS.
During the summer of 2014, months after ISIS seized Raqqa city, Tabqa airbase constituted the Syrian regime’s remaining bastion in that province. Damascus presumed the base was capable of defending itself since it was manned by 1,000-1,400 Syrian soldiers and was home to Syrian Air Force MiG jet fighters, which could bomb anywhere in that province.
Until that point in time ISIS had been busy killing other armed groups Damascus opposed -- Raqqa was the first provincial capital the regime lost to the opposition early in 2013 and was later taken over at their expense by ISIS in January 2014 -- so it chose not to confront the group while it was liquidating its other adversaries in that region.
Then Mosul fell to ISIS in June 2014, ISIS was able to seize large quantities of weapons and military hardware the Iraqi Army left behind after it infamously withdrew from that region ahead of ISIS’s rapid advance. Many of those weapons were trucked into Syria for the group’s use there against the Syrian Kurds.
ISIS assaulted Tabqa that August. The Syrian military managed to hold out for 18-days, launching airstrikes against ISIS in Raqqa and the surrounding areas from the base. The airbase nevertheless fell after at least 300 Syrian soldiers were killed by ISIS. The rest were forced to flee for their lives.
The fall of Tabqa airbase marked the moment Damascus lost complete control of that province to ISIS.
Similarly in May 2015 the Syrian Army suffered another humiliating defeat in Palmyra when ISIS overran that ancient city and infamously mass-executed 21 Syrian soldiers in its ancient Roman-era amphitheater.
Syria reversed its defeat in Palmyra by recapturing it, with close Russian air support, late last March. Advancing against ISIS in Tabqa next is logical since that area would give the Syrian Army a strategically significant foothold in the Raqqa province.
It is a smart aim also since ISIS under pressure on its northern and western fronts from the SDF’s offensive – meaning the militants cannot realistically divert the bulk of their forces solely in order to try and halt a Syrian military advance from their west without instantly losing ground elsewhere to the SDF.
In the long-term re-securing a foothold in Tabqa would more easily enable the Syrian military to keep rival groups in Raqqa province in check. Whether they plan to put the airbase there back into use, if and when they recapture Tabqa, has yet to be seen.
This offensive may also be a first step toward linking up with Syria’s remaining easternmost outpost, where a Syrian Army contingent has been preventing ISIS from taking over that entire city for around two years now. Deir Ezzor is home to 200,000 people who are having to endure a very dire humanitarian situation caused by ISIS’s siege of their city.
Completely retaking these two provincial capitals would once again make the Syrian regime a formidable force in the east of the country and give credence to President Bashar al-Assad’s declaration, made last February, that he will eventually re-conquer “the whole country” from his opponents.
Reclaiming a sizeable foothold in Raqqa province and reinforcing the contingent in Deir Ezzor will likely be on the agenda for Damascus, especially if this fledgling offensive makes good headway in the coming days and weeks.
Paul Iddon is a Rudaw reporter based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region.
Syrian soldiers and allied militias, supported by Russian airstrikes, are advancing toward the town of Tabqa, which is home to a former Syrian military airbase and dam.
This offensive began shortly after the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched their own offensive in northern Raqqa, and toward Manbij. Both groups aim to retake Tabqa, which is 40 kilometers upstream (westward) from the city of Raqqa – ISIS’s so-called de-facto capital and main Syrian stronghold.
For Damascus to undertake such an offensive against ISIS in Raqqa now makes sense because retaking Tabqa would reverse one of two humiliating military defeats Syria’s military suffered at the hands of ISIS.
During the summer of 2014, months after ISIS seized Raqqa city, Tabqa airbase constituted the Syrian regime’s remaining bastion in that province. Damascus presumed the base was capable of defending itself since it was manned by 1,000-1,400 Syrian soldiers and was home to Syrian Air Force MiG jet fighters, which could bomb anywhere in that province.
Until that point in time ISIS had been busy killing other armed groups Damascus opposed -- Raqqa was the first provincial capital the regime lost to the opposition early in 2013 and was later taken over at their expense by ISIS in January 2014 -- so it chose not to confront the group while it was liquidating its other adversaries in that region.
Then Mosul fell to ISIS in June 2014, ISIS was able to seize large quantities of weapons and military hardware the Iraqi Army left behind after it infamously withdrew from that region ahead of ISIS’s rapid advance. Many of those weapons were trucked into Syria for the group’s use there against the Syrian Kurds.
ISIS assaulted Tabqa that August. The Syrian military managed to hold out for 18-days, launching airstrikes against ISIS in Raqqa and the surrounding areas from the base. The airbase nevertheless fell after at least 300 Syrian soldiers were killed by ISIS. The rest were forced to flee for their lives.
The fall of Tabqa airbase marked the moment Damascus lost complete control of that province to ISIS.
Similarly in May 2015 the Syrian Army suffered another humiliating defeat in Palmyra when ISIS overran that ancient city and infamously mass-executed 21 Syrian soldiers in its ancient Roman-era amphitheater.
Syria reversed its defeat in Palmyra by recapturing it, with close Russian air support, late last March. Advancing against ISIS in Tabqa next is logical since that area would give the Syrian Army a strategically significant foothold in the Raqqa province.
It is a smart aim also since ISIS under pressure on its northern and western fronts from the SDF’s offensive – meaning the militants cannot realistically divert the bulk of their forces solely in order to try and halt a Syrian military advance from their west without instantly losing ground elsewhere to the SDF.
In the long-term re-securing a foothold in Tabqa would more easily enable the Syrian military to keep rival groups in Raqqa province in check. Whether they plan to put the airbase there back into use, if and when they recapture Tabqa, has yet to be seen.
This offensive may also be a first step toward linking up with Syria’s remaining easternmost outpost, where a Syrian Army contingent has been preventing ISIS from taking over that entire city for around two years now. Deir Ezzor is home to 200,000 people who are having to endure a very dire humanitarian situation caused by ISIS’s siege of their city.
Completely retaking these two provincial capitals would once again make the Syrian regime a formidable force in the east of the country and give credence to President Bashar al-Assad’s declaration, made last February, that he will eventually re-conquer “the whole country” from his opponents.
Reclaiming a sizeable foothold in Raqqa province and reinforcing the contingent in Deir Ezzor will likely be on the agenda for Damascus, especially if this fledgling offensive makes good headway in the coming days and weeks.
Paul Iddon is a Rudaw reporter based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region.